Why emotional drama?

Why emotional drama?

The husband and wife gifted themselves a new car for their first wedding anniversary. They drove downtown, watched a movie, and finally returned home. They didn't have the garage facility. So the car was parked in the street. To their utter shock, when they woke up the next morning, the car was missing. The car was stolen. First car, first wedding anniversary gift, and they had enjoyed the car for just a day. The wife couldn't take it. With misty eyes she sank into the sofa. The husband too was a little jolted, but he said, “The car is lost. You can feel heavy about it. You can take it easy. Either way the car is lost. Then, why not take it easy.” She gave him a cold stare and the moment passed.

A logical question: When the car, how can anyone take it easy? But what else can you do? Feel heavy, if you want; take it easy, if you want - either way, after the emotional drama, what has to be done has to be done. The police complaint has to be lodged; the insurance has to be claimed… what has to be done has to be done.

You left the milk a little longer than required on the gas stove. The boiled milk is beginning to overflow from all sides of the vessel. Scream, wail, screech, get tensed, and let your BP to shoot up… after all the emotional drama, now what? You will switch the stove off, offload the milk vessel and clean the kitchen countertop. So, eventually what has to be done will be done.
Here we are not discussing about not being emotional, but about avoiding the dramatic emotional reactions. Emotions - yes. Emotional drama - no!

Emotional maturity is not about avoiding emotions, but it is about avoiding the emotional drama. Anyways, what has to be done has to be done. Then, why the drama?

October - The Month Ahead

Welcome to our analysis of key dates coming up in October 2010.

Various markets experienced big moves in September, with the major stock indices managing to shake off the weakness that had dogged them in August. The US dollar, however, came under pressure, particularly from the euro which continued to claw back some of the ground lost in the first half of the year. Gold, often perceived as a safe haven, was relentless in setting fresh all-time highs.

Investors remain concerned about the fragility of the economic recovery, which means there are some potential market-moving events to watch out for during October. Keep an eye on the monthly US non-farm payrolls, which, uncharacteristically, are released on the second Friday of the month (8 October). Current expectations are for a drop of around 15,000 jobs in the USA during September.

Other big events that may result in widespread volatility are the central bank interest-rate announcements. No change to the base rate is expected, but with both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England refusing to rule out further quantitative easing to underpin recovery, any signs of additional measures on the horizon could see strong reaction across a range of assets.

Silver @ 22$ - 33333 Mcx

It's been a good week for silver, with the precious metal gaining 4% to $21.97 an ounce. Deflationary fears and the use of QE as an instrument to stimulate growth and devalue the US dollar have encouraged investors to diversify into assets that will protect their wealth. A drop in US consumer confidence and weaker-than-expected Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index didn't help the situation, as it gave the Fed more ammunition to begin another round of QE. The ensuing broad decline in the US dollar pushed silver to a 30-year high this week. While silver is often called the poor man's gold, there are a number of factors that may see silver outperform its more illustrious partner in the coming years. Unlike gold, silver is used extensively for industrial applications; as a matter of fact around half of silver demand is consumed for this reason. These applications include silver alloys used in batteries, electrical applications that require superior conductivity such as TVs and microwaves, and as a catalyst for chemical reactions. A large amount of silver is used in photography and of course, for jewellery and silverware. In addition to these wide applications, silver is also becoming the metal of choice to use in solar panels for its reflective ability and excellent conductivity. With China at the forefront of solar technology, the country is consuming more and more silver and silver exports have fallen 64% as a result. China is the world’s third-largest producer of silver and accounted for almost 13% of global production in 2009. Thus a reduction in China's exports will suppress the availability of silver globally, which in turn supports the metal's value. Besides the physical appeal of silver, the gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver could make further headway and outperform its more expensive cousin. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently around 60, whereas in the past it has averaged around 55. Historically, this ratio tends to be mean reverting, which suggests silver has some catch up to do with gold. The popularity of gold has seen it rise to all-time highs, but as investors begin to worry that gold has become too expensive, they are beginning to take a closer interest in silver.

Crude Oil

November crude oil futures traded at $77.81 a barrel on Thursday morning, representing a 3.5% gain on the week. Speculation about a revival in QE has helped reinvigorate a rally in many commodities this week. The expectation of additional QE weakened the US dollar, which in turn rendered commodities, priced in US dollars, relatively cheaper in foreign currency terms. Falling energy stockpiles and evidence of an expansion in Chinese manufacturing sector also contributed the weekly rally in crude oil. On Wednesday a report from the US government's Energy Department showed that crude oil inventories fell by 500,000 barrels in the week ending 24 September. The size of the drawdown was larger than the estimate shown in a survey by Dow Jones Newswires. Meanwhile, declines in gasoline and distillates confounded analysts who were expecting an increase. Gasoline stockpiles dropped by 3.47 million barrels to 222.6 million last week, and stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 1.27 million barrels to 173.6 million. A separate report compiled by HSBC Holdings showed that manufacturing in China, the world's fastest-growing oil-consuming country, accelerated for a second month in September. China's Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector rose to 52.9, the highest in five months. The data was seasonally adjusted and readings above 50 indicate an expansion. Going forwards, crude oil investors should – as always – be very careful about where they place their stop losses, as volatility in the commodity is poised to increase. Although the reintroduction of QE could provide a bullish case for crude oil, China's determination to prevent a property bubble and concerns about the European economy, especially the peripheral region, will weigh on sentiment.

Gold AT 1317$

Gold continued its seemingly inexorable advance this week, reaching a new nominal record high of $1313.45 an ounce on Wednesday. Gold is heading for a tenth consecutive year of annual gains, the longest winning run since 1910. Bullion dealers Kitco International commented that 'most of what we have witnessed in the complex during the month has been clearly based on perceptions of an inevitable second chapter in Fed accommodation'. [1] Speculation surrounding possible additional stimulus measures in the US has increased following a barrage of weak economic data from the world's largest economy. Tuesday's readings of consumer confidence and manufacturing indices point to a stagnating US economic recovery, and the inflationary possibilities raised by a return to quantitative easing (QE) have driven investors towards the safe haven of gold. A poll of bankers, gold miners and analysts meeting at this year's London Bullion Market Association conference forecast that gold would reach $1450 an ounce during 2011, a 10.5% increase from current levels. The bullish mood surrounding gold has also been stoked up by news that central banks, led primarily by Russia and Asian governments, will become net buyers of the precious metal after two decades of net selling. Credit Suisse observed that 'it's quite possible that if there are any further upsets in either the currency markets or the rates markets ... we could get another leg higher and then we'd be looking at the next upside target at $1330'. [2] Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, climbed by five tonnes on Tuesday, while buying in India rose on Wednesday as the strength of the rupee helped to shield local buyers in the world's largest democracy.

Fun Time - Jokes

Girlfriend: And are you sure you love me and no one else?
Boyfriend: Dead Sure! I checked the whole list again yesterday

Waiter: Would you like your coffee black?
Customer: What other colors do you have?

Manager: Sorry, but i can’t give u a job. I don’t need much help.
Job Applicant: That’s all right. In fact I’m just the right person in this case. You see, I won’t be of much help anyway!!

Dad: Son, what do u want for ur birthday?
Son: Not much dad, Just a radio with a sports car around it.

Diner: I can’t eat such a rotten chicken. Call the manager!
Waiter: It’s no use. He won’t eat it either.

Diner: You’ll drive me to my grave!
Waiter: Well, you don’t expect to walk there, do you?

Husband: U know, wife, our son got his brain from me.
Wife: I think he did, I’ve still got mine with me!

Man: Officer! There’s a bomb in my garden!
Officer: Don’t worry. If no one claims it within three days, you can keep it.

Father: Your teacher says she finds it impossible to teach you anything!
Son: That’s why I say she’s no good!

Crude Oil - Commentary

Crude oil continued to decline on Thursday morning, extending the falls seen on Wednesday afternoon after the weekly inventory report from the US government showed an unexpected rise in stockpiles. Crude oil supplies rose by 970,000 barrels to 358.3 million barrels in the week to 17 September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline stockpiles also increased, by 1.59 million barrels to 226.1 million barrels. Bloomberg reported that inventory levels had been expected to fall due to the eight day shutdown of the Enbridge Energy pipeline, which sends Canadian oil to the Mid-West of the United States. During the week, oil found some support from a falling US dollar, which weakened in the wake of the Federal Reserve meeting on 21 September. The Fed’s Open Market Committee had intimated that slowing inflation and sluggish growth in the world’s largest economy might require further action, expanding the record $2.3 trillion balance sheet as early as November. Weiss Research commented that ‘the inventory numbers were bigger than expected, but the dollar is the prime driver right now’, adding that ‘once this news is digested, oil will move higher along with the precious metals’. [1] On Tuesday, the private-sector American Petroleum Institute (API) said that crude inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, confounding analyst expectations of a fall of 1.5 million barrels. The increase in supply arising from the slowing US economy stands in sharp contrast to robust consumption levels in emerging markets, with Chinese demand for oil expanding by 7.6% in August. Barclays Capital caught the mood of the times as it observed that ‘despite the cautious outlook on oil demand still often expressed in market sentiment, the actual flow of data continues to point to extremely robust global demand indications’.

Copper - Commentary

December high-grade copper futures traded at $3.586 per pound on Thursday morning, representing a 2.85% gain on the week. The industrial metal rallied to a five-month high of $3.5905 on Wednesday following a slide in the US dollar. This was instigated by the Federal Reserve, which on Tuesday evening confirmed that it stood ready to inject another round of stimulus to reinvigorate growth. The spectre of further QE consequently weighed on the US dollar, which in turn made metals appear intrinsically cheaper in foreign currency terms. Tight global copper supplies and resilient demand for copper from emerging markets have also supported the metal’s ascent. Trade data released earlier this week showed that China’s annual consumption of refined copper rose by almost a quarter in August, thanks to a surge in imports. Meanwhile, a separate report by the International Copper Study Group showed that world refined copper consumption surpassed production by 281,000 tonnes between January and June this year. This compares with a deficit of 125,000 tonnes in the same period a year ago. Copper output at the world’s largest mine is also poised to remain tight. The chief executive of Codelco on Wednesday said that the mine’s copper output will remain unchanged at 1.8 million tonnes in 2010 and 2011. Copper has gained 8.65% on the month and in the greater scheme of things it is probably not too unreasonable to expect a bit of a pullback, perhaps on Monday when most of the Asian market resumes trading following a three-day mid-autumn festival.

Commentary - Gold

Gold surged to an all-time high of $1,296.50 per troy ounce this week and has gained 1.3% on the week. The FOMC meeting on Tuesday served as a catalyst for higher gold prices as the precious metal came under heavy demand from investors seeking protection from a deteriorating US dollar. The Fed’s acknowledgment that inflation is ‘somewhat below’ levels deemed consistent with their mandate was taken as a hint that further Quantitative Easing (QE) was on the agenda. These comments saw the US dollar plunge this week. As confidence in paper based fiat currency begins to fade, demand for gold will increase as investors seek an asset that will retain its value during times of uncertainty. This demand will not only come from US investors fearing a drop in the dollar, but also Japanese investors worried about further currency intervention from the Bank of Japan, as well as UK investors who are seeing sterling decline amidst buoyant inflationary conditions. The additional uncertainty surrounding the US mid-term elections is likely to support gold as well in the short-term, while physical demand for the metal is traditionally high this time of year due to festive activities in India. It is difficult to see what may break gold’s remarkable momentum in the near term. The possibility of a prolonged equity market rally and greater clarity in the global economic recovery could see investors lock in gains in gold to seek higher yielding assets. In my view, however, this seems unlikely to happen in the current environment. Furthermore, gold is currently still well below the nominal high of $873 an ounce reached in 1980 - in inflation-adjusted terms this would equate to $2,312.94 today.

Gold Technical

As per our previous recommendation dated 7th September, 2010 of going Long on Spot Gold, of $ 1265 has been achieved.

As seen the price is almost trading at the long term resistances line (R) Hence, in our view profits on long positions (as per our previous recommendation) should be booked at the current levels and fresh long positions should be initiated on dips for (T) $ 1346 (life time high). Strong support is at $ 1248; until this support is breach buying is advisable.

A sustainable break of $ 1296 level from below could trigger a sharp rally targeting $ 1348 (T).RSI is showing some resistance at current level. Volume and Open interest is firm which indicates further bullishness.

Copper - Commentary

Copper has underperformed over the week, gaining only 0.16% as speculation that China may impose further measures to cool the property market tempered demand for the metal. The People's Daily newspaper in China has reported that Chinese property developers are beginning to struggle with cashflow problems. This comes at the same time that speculation is mounting that China will enforce higher capital-adequacy ratios, which would tighten lending conditions in China. Goldman Sachs is estimating that capital-adequacy ratios in China could reach 15% by 2012. At the moment the largest Chinese banks must meet a capital ratio of 11.5%. Advancements in China's economy carries a huge weight in driving copper prices, as China is estimated to consume around 40% of the world's copper production. Copper, which is used extensively in wiring of homes and buildings, tends to move in line with developments in the property and industrial sectors. The world's second largest consumer of copper is the US, but the growth outlook for the US remains soft, with industrial production declining to a meagre 0.2% this week while the US housing industry is still struggling to get back on firm footing. That means that investors have turned to emerging markets to take their cues for copper demand. Despite this week's underperformance, many analysts are still bullish on their outlook for copper, with the availability of large copper deposits dwindling and the costs of refining high-grade copper increasing. Investors seeking to take a position in copper should be mindful of the volatility in copper prices, particularly in the current environment where uncertainty is hampering any clear direction for the global economy.

Natural Gas - Commentary 19 Sept 2010

Natural gas has gained steadily over the week, rising 6.69% to trade at $4.02 per million British Thermal Units (MMBTUs) on Thursday morning. Concerns that tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico may hamper gas production supported prices earlier in the week. Tropical Storm Karl may hit wells in the western region of the Gulf of Mexico, while Hurricane Igor is moving towards the Bermuda area with Category 4-force winds. Natural gas has performed horribly over the year as excess supply has suppressed gas prices. Yet there are some bright spots that exist, which should see prices rebound at some point. From an environmental perspective, natural gas emits 30% less CO2 compared to burning petroleum and 45% less CO2 than burning coal. In that respect, gas may benefit as economies push towards more carbon-friendly energy sources and begin to implement stricter carbon capping schemes. Research firm Empa recently conducted a study for the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment where they compared the CO2 emissions from hybrid cars and natural-gas–powered vehicles. They found cars powered by natural gas were better for emissions when driving on motorways, while hybrids performed better for inner-city driving. However, with hybrid technology still in its early stages and gas readily available, a move towards gas-powered vehicles, especially for trucks and buses that travel long distances, could have immediate benefits in reducing CO2 emissions. Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also set to rise in the long term as Asia and Europe start to see their domestic gas production begins to trail demand. According to gas producer Total, committed natural gas projects account for only 25% of the LNG that these regions will require in 2020. In the short term, demand for natural gas is set to increase as we approach winter and as the need for heating increases during the cooler months

Gold - Commentary On 19 Sept 2010

Gold reached an all-time high of $1274.95 per troy ounce this week as heightened economic uncertainty and quantitative easing speculation encouraged investors to increase their exposure to the precious metal. The US dollar has seen broad declines over the past week and could depreciate further if the Fed announces another round of quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve will meet on 21 September to discuss its policies and a pro–quantitative-easing tone may provide the impetus for further gains in gold. Goldman Sachs chief US economist Jan Hatzius earlier this week reported that further quantitative easing could be initiated as early as November. After the Japanese government intervened to weaken the yen on Wednesday, Japanese investors may seek shelter in gold on fears that further intervention may be on the cards. Gold has also traditionally been thought to be a good hedge against inflation, and with inflation in the UK not budging at 3%, there could be an influx of UK investors buying more bullion. The bullish sentiment was echoed by precious metals researcher GFMS, which hasn't ruled out the possibility of gold rising to $1350 this year as investment demand outstrips jewellery use. Notwithstanding this, demand for gold from the jewellery market is also expected to remain strong leading into the end of the year as gift-giving ahead of various religious festivities props up buying. This week also saw the last major gold miner close out its gold hedging positions. AngloGold Ashanti announced on Tuesday that it plans to raise around $1.5 billion to close out its hedging contracts, which were a major burden for the company as it locked in the price it received for gold at around $450 an ounce. This latest move will allow AngloGold Ashanti to benefit from future price increases in gold. This may be interpreted as a bullish signal as it suggests the miner is confident gold prices will rise further. On the other hand, it could also be considered a bearish move if you take the view that the company is closing out its previous hedge contracts in order to re-hedge at today's prices due to a belief that gold prices have peaked and will decline in the future. However, this seems unlikely as the fundamentals driving gold prices remain firmly intact.

Commodity Options Soonnnnn!

India's cabinet on Thursday approved amendments in forward contracts regulation, allowing exchanges to launch options in the commodity market, the government said in a statement.

The cabinet cleared the way to allow commodities exchanges to launch options on Thursday, a move which should boost liquidity in markets which have already attracted international investors.

"New products like options will be allowed in the commodity market," a statement issued by the government said after cabinet approved amendments to a regulatory bill. "This will benefit various stakeholders including the farmers."

The bill now goes to parliament for approval, the statement said. The Forward Markets Commission would be the regulator for the exchanges and will have autonomy, the statement said.

International investors Goldman Sachs and Intercontinental Exchange have already bought small stakes in Indian exchanges.

India's commodity market regulator, B.C. Khatua, told Reuters he expected to see institutional financial players in the futures markets after the changes.

Last month, the market regulator said India's Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group planned to buy a stake in the Indian Commodity Exchange, a leading bourse for trade in metals including gold, while Jaypee Capital wanted to acquire 26 percent in the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange.

Great News for Indian Commodity Traders as it paves way for hedging & better strategic trading.


Best Wishes :-)


Jai Jinendra

Silver Rising As Expected

As mentioned earlier... Silver has reached to Target one..


Expect some profit booking here... 

http://predictingfortunes.blogspot.com/2010/09/silver-spot.html

Silver Spot

As per our previous recommendation dated 8^th September, 2010 of going Long on Silver Spot, first target of $ 20.50 has been achieved.

Hence, in our view, profits on long positions (as per our previous recommendation) should be booked at the current levels and fresh long positions should be initiated on dips. Further, if prices continue to hold at the levels of $ 20.50/60 we could see an extended rally till $ 21 – 21.23.

Strong support is at $ 19.81 (Previous top) as seen on the chart above if this support is breach then price could test the next support at $19.40.

Strategy -- Go long targeting $ 21-21.23, with the stop loss closing below $ 19.80

Silver Update @ 2010

AS MENTIONED 


TECHNICALLY HOLDING ABOVE 19.50$ & IF MONDAY CLOSES ABOVE 20.10$ WILL HEAD TOWARDS 20.90-21.50 LEVELS.

SILVER CROSSES ABOVE 20.20 BUT CLOSED BELOW 20.10 (CLOSE = 20.03)

OPENING IS STRONG BUT MARKET WILL GIVE 2 WAY MOVEMENTS.

EXPECT HUGE VOLATILITY TODAY... 

19.80 - 20.50 SHOULD BE THE RANGE.. 

KEEP WATCHING.. 


JAI JINENDRA :)

Silver Update

Spot silver traded at $19.97 per ounce on Thursday morning, representing an 1.6% gain on the week. Silver tends to be grouped closely with its precious metal partner gold, as they are both used for jewellery and decorative purposes and are considered to be a good store of value. Unlike silver, however, gold is considered to be a safe-haven metal that tends to outperform during periods of uncertainty. As a matter of fact, gold has outperformed silver over the past year amidst worries about the eurozone economy. This explains why the performance of silver has lagged behind gold over the past year. However, silver is now beginning to catch up with gold’s performance, and likely to have entered a phase of outperformance. Silver is becoming increasingly important for its industrial use, a characteristic that gold does not share. Demand for silver is poised to increase as the world moves towards greener technologies and more energy efficient products. The white metal is considered to be the material of choice for solar reflectors and is also the best conductor of electricity, even more than copper. Silver was never used extensively for electrical wiring in the past because it costs relatively more than copper. However, the upgrading of electrical grids across many major cities and the push for more hybrid cars, which require enhanced conductivity, may provide a fundamental boost to silver demand. The metal also has medical applications and is used as a chemical catalyst.




TECHNICALLY HOLDING ABOVE 19.50$ & IF MONDAY CLOSES ABOVE 20.10$ WILL HEAD TOWARDS 20.90-21.50 LEVELS.


KEEP WATCHING.. 


JAI JINENDRA :)

Mahaparva Paryushan & Samvatsari

Mahaparva Paryushan   & Samvatsari

Samvatsari – The day that comes only once a year after much preparations is known as ‘Samvatsari’. This is the day that arrives after the religious period of ‘Samvotsar’. In fact this festival is also called ‘Paryushan’. This period of‘samvotsar’ comes 50 days after and 70 days before the close of the chaturmas period. Sometimes the ‘samvotsar’may vary between 49 days after and 71 days before the close of the ‘chaturmas’ or the four month period.

Samatsavari is the Last day of this festivale & main Day. This day All Jains keep fasting. . On Next day they take breakfast which called as Parna .

Jain strongly believes in forgiving. On the Samatsvari last partikarman all person plead this message within them, & to all other person who are connected with them in past life in any manner. Jaines plead there forgiveness message to all person whom they know and does 'nt matter which sector or cast they belog. The forgiving plead is not limited into present life but also include there all previous life.

GRANTING PARDON OR FORGIVENESS

• The meaning of forgiveness is tolerance.
• To believe that tolerance is one’s responsibility and to oppose the negative forces of animosity is forgiveness.
• Tolerance is to overlook the source of the negative forces of anger.
• Forgiveness is the weapon of the strong willed.

To be able to keep a check on one’s power of destruction is forgiveness. The one who does not know to forgive is considered as lowly. The person who judges others and refuses to grant pardon is himself unpardonable. Strength lies with the one whose heart is full of benevolence. A person who can overlook the shortcomings, lapses and wrong-doings is a source of joy and peace. Great is the man who does not hesitate to ask for pardon for his own mistakes. The harbinger of peace is one who makes an attempt to alleviate the sufferings that have occurred due to his disregard.

I grant forgiveness to all living beings,

All living beings grant me forgiveness.

My friendship is with all living beings,

My enmity is totally nonexistent.

KHAAMEMI SAVVE JEEVA

SAVVE JEEVA KHAMANTU ME

METTI ME SAVVE BHUYESU

VAIRAM MAJHAM NA KENAI

Kshama Veerasya Bhushanam

Micchami Dukkadam

Jai Jinendra ~!

Ahimsa Parmo Dharma :)

Wishing All Love & Happiness :)

Central Banks Rushing For Gold

Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines follow Soros and Paulson into the Yellow Metal.

No wonder gold rose to $1,260 an ounce this week before easing. One by one, central banks are amassing major gold positions, proof positive that they want to participate in the world's most glamorous asset class. Think central banks taking investment advice from global hedge funds.

This is probably a unique order in the investment jungle. The major seller, the International Monetary Fund, does not look too sharp. It sold 541,700 ounces of the shiny metal in July alone according to Uncommon Wisdom, an investment service I've been monitoring.

So far in 2010 Russia has increased its gold holdings by 2.8 million ounces, $3.6 billion at current prices. Total holdings by the Putin government total almost $30 billion. Saudi Arabia and the Philippines have disclosed new gold buying in 2010, plus India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius bought gold in 2009.

The World Gold Council seems sure the People's Bank of China also is a major accumulator of gold. It makes sense that some portion of China's $2 trillion in reserves would be held in gold. It is a hedge against global economic uncertainty. For others, it is a substitute for paper money. More recently, it's been a hot investment.

This central bank buying reverses the prevailing trend of the past several decades of central banks selling excess gold to the speculators. Can China not be steadily and secretly taking a massive position? We will try to find out next week from a well-placed Hong Kong source.

Gold is rising in price and will continue to do so because demand is rising far faster than any potential supply to meet it. Mine production has remained flat even as investor demand more than doubled so far in 2010 compared to a year earlier. Exchange-traded funds likeSPDR Gold Shares ( GLD - news - people ) and iShares COMEX Gold Trust ( IAU - news - people ) have exploded 25% higher in the past year, far better than 8% advance for the S&P 500.

It has not been lost on central banks that the dollar has lost 80% of its value against gold since 1999. Just as serious, dollar-denominated stock market indexes have also lost around 80% of their value relative to gold in the past decade. There is unmistakable fear that precious metals may well hold their value or rise in value as paper money gets trounced.

A wealthy precious metals investor recently warned me to move at least some of my investments out of the U.S. to safer havens and to switch dollars into gold and real assets, like other commodity producing properties.

Think about it, the price of gold has gained 12% in the past 30 days, 24% over the last six months and 192% over five years. Does that seem like a fad, a fluke? Sure, gold is volatile. It is back down to $1,245 an ounce from $1,260 two days ago. It backed and filled for some time before rising to new highs in the past decade.

The role of gold is changing. For some it is a hedge against global economic uncertainty. For others it is an alternative to holding paper currency, especially because of doubts sovereign debt levels can be permanently reduced to manageable levels. Gold as a safe haven is a concept driving pension funds, endowments, and family offices, sophisticated investors, to have a portion, say 5% to 15% of their massive portfolios, in some form of gold, be it gold bullion held in a bank safety deposit box, gold mining shares like the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF ( GDX - news - people ). There's even outright ownership of part or all of a gold mine.

Get yields of 8% to 15% on top of huge capital gains in fixed-income securities, including bank preferreds. Click here for Forbes-Lehmann Income Securities Investor.

We'll never hear of it, but I know f or a fact that leading investment banks own for their own account gold mining properties. Investors are looking at publicly traded Russian gold companies that are expected to double their gold production in the next five years, according to Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Funds.

Safer choices probably are Barrick Gold ( ABX - news -people ) or Newcrest Mining in Australia, which has an 8% weighting in Christopher Wood's long only absolute return portfolio for Asia ex-Japan. Wood, author of the Greed & Fear weekly letter, has been recommending gold since it was $375 an ounce.

My prediction is that further negative equity returns will result in further positive price action in gold.

Admit your Mistakes & Errors

Admit your mistakes and errors
One reason Hitler lost World War II was that he did not fully understand the situation. Bearers of bad news were punished. Soon no one dared tell him the truth. Not knowing the truth, he could not act appropriately.

Many of us are individually guilty of the same error. We do not like to admit to ourselves our mistakes, errors, shortcomings, or ever admit we have been in the wrong. And because we will not see the truth, we cannot act appropriately. 

Someone has said that it is a good exercise to daily admit one painful fact about ourselves to ourselves. 

Look for and seek out true information concerning yourself, your problems, other people, or situation, whether it is good news or bad news. 

Adopt the motto – “It doesn’t matter who’s right, but what’s right.”

Admit your mistakes and errors but don’t cry over them. Correct them and go forward. In dealing with other people try to see the situation from their point of view as well as your own.




Best Wishes !
Jai Jinendra

Silver Spot

Silver Spot

The market has breached the two years high of $.19.81 (C1) and today’s Bull Run has confirmed bullish undertone as price is holding above $ 19.81 (T1).This breach was important as it would now give momentum to the prices to test $ 20.50 (T2) in few trading session.

We recommend to hold or to add to the existing longs targeting $ 20.50. A stop could be placed at a closing below $19.50.

Strategy – Go long targeting $ 20.50 - 21 with the stop loss closing below $ 19.40.

Best Wishes

Jai Jinendra :-)

Silver @ 31500... Now What??

Silver @ 19.99$ Ounce... Almost made top...


If not cross & close above 20.10$ today... Expect Profit booking upto 18.97$


A 1000 Point Dip in INR. Expected..


CMP 31500. Resistance @ 31567-72.


Once Breaks 31240 expect panic selling all over... upto 30600... If break this then...??






Keep Updated!


Jai Jinendra

Gold & Silver Update

Dear Friends




Gold & Silver are trading in a small range for past two days.. 


Today expect high volatility & Profit booking may be seen by evening session..


Gold resistance seen @ 1256$ Silver @ 19.7-8$


Expecting 1245-35$ in gold &  19.2-3$ in silver.






Happy Trading :)


Jai Jinendra!!

US Jobless Claims Data Update

Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 472,000 in the week ended Aug. 28, in line with the median forecast ---Productivity in U.S. Falls More Than First Estimated, Labor Costs Increase. The measure of employee output per hour dropped at a 1.8% annual rate, twice the 0.9% decrease initially calculated & the biggest decline in almost 4 years. Unit labor costs were projected to rise 1.2%.

ECB Update

ECB kept interest rates at a record low today and President Trichet may signal the bank will stay in crisis mode into next year. ECB will probably raise its growth forecasts today after Europe's economy expanded at the fastest pace in four years in the second quarter.

Platinum Will Outshine Industrial & Precious Metals In 2010-11

Platinum Will Outshine Industrial & Precious Metals In 2010-11, with a 50 per cent Gain

Even after a record 57 percent rally last year, platinum is cheap  relative to gold, signaling more gains as demand grows from carmakers and exchange-traded funds.

An ounce of platinum buys 1.42 ounces of gold, down 42 percent from the record 2.43 ounces in 2001 and 23 percent less than the 10-year average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Automakers, the biggest buyers, will expand output 20 percent this year, said EVAN SMITH, who helps manage $2 billion at U.S. Global Investors. HEDGE funds raised their bets 163 percent in 2009, about twice gold’s increase. ETF Securities Ltd. funds lifted holdings to a record 594,465 ounces.

“We are long platinum and short gold,” said  Jonathan Barratt, the Sydney-based managing director with Commodity Broking Services Pty, who predicted platinum’s rally in September. “Gold remains under pressure. As inflation moves lower and the dollar goes higher, gold isn’t as solid.”

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch strategist micheal widmer raised his forecast for this year by 35 percent to an average of $1,750 and predicted $2,000 for 2011. Standard Chartered Plc forecast platinum will be one of the year’s best commodities.

Prices may jump 55 percent to a record $2,400 by mid-year, said Joerg Ceh, head of commodity trading at Landesbank Baden- Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, Germany’s biggest state-owned lender. 
Platinum traded at $1,549 an ounce as of Jan. 22 in London, down 33 percent from its March 2008 record, while gold sold for $1,093.20, within 11 percent of its peak last month. Buying platinum today and selling gold would return 30 percent, should the ratio return to the 10-year average of 1.84 times. 
South Africa Risk

A rally in metals would extend gains in shares of Johannesburg-based  Anglo platinum ltd. and Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the world’s biggest producers. Anglo soared to a 15-month high of 819 rand Jan. 5 and closed at 752.36 rand on Jan. 22. Credit Suisse Standard Securities Ltd., the joint venture of Credit Suisse Group AG and Standard Bank Group Ltd., raised the companies to “outperform” on Jan. 19.

About 80 percent of the world’s platinum supply comes from South Africa, where power cuts shut mines in 2008 because the generators couldn’t produce enough electricity to meet demand. Energy use may surge again in June and July when the nation hosts soccer’s World Cup.

Production this year is at risk because “you’ve got potential problems of electricity capacity coming out of South Africa,” said Chad Walls, head of metals trading in the Asia- Pacific region with Fortis Bank in Hong Kong.

The Last Time 
When the U.S. was exiting the 2001 recession, platinum and gold traded at a ratio of about 1.60 compared with 1.42 today. Platinum prices gained 70 percent in 2002 and 2003 and the ratio climbed to 2.30 in April 2004, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Platinum prices should be double that of gold,” said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd. in India, the biggest gold consumer. “It’s only about 40 percent more expensive. That means it has more room to rise.”

U.S. Global’s Smith is betting on platinum as the world’s worst economic downturn since World War II ends.

“We’ve seen growth coming out of the bottom of the recession and we’ll see that develop into the economic rebound,” said Smith, who oversees the $684 million U.S. Global Investors Global Resources Fund in San Antonio, Texas, which gained 68 percent last year. “The benefit of holding platinum is that it has precious metals characteristics, but also a pretty good industrial component as well.”

Autos Recover 
Industrial uses, including the catalytic converters that strip pollution from automotive exhausts, represented about 70 percent of platinum demand in 2008, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. Industrial and dental usage made up about 11 percent of demand for gold, World Gold Council figures show.

U.S. auto sales will rise 20 percent to 12.4 million in 2010, the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research said Dec. 15. China, which supplanted the U.S. as the largest market after vehicle sales jumped 46 percent to 13.6 million last year, may sell as many as 15 million in 2010, according to General Motors China Inc. President  Kevin wale.

Platinum may have a “modest deficit” in supply this year, according to London-based Johnson Matthey, the producer of about 33 percent of the world’s auto catalysts. An improvement in the economy may spur “some recovery in automotive and industrial demand,” it said in November. Demand for autocatalysts dropped by a third to 2.5 million ounces in 2009, the lowest level in nine years, it said.

World Growth “The fundamentals for platinum are turning around,” said  Evy Hambro, who manages the $13.9 billion World Mining Fund at BlackRock Investment Management Ltd. in London. “We’ve had a large exposure throughout 2009. If there were to be any weakness in the near term because of other factors, we would take advantage of that and add to our portfolio.”

The International Monetary Fund said in October the global economy will expand 3.1 percent this year after a 1.1 percent contraction in 2009. The advance of precious metals, especially gold, has been driven by investors seeking refuge from an 8.5 %slump in the Dollar Index in the past year and concern that government spending will worsen inflation.

The dollar rallied 0.5 percent against the six-currency basket this month after a 4 percent jump in December. The U.S. annual inflation rate was 2.7 percent in December. Floriam Siegfried , chief executive officer of Precious Capital AG, called the rally an “overreaction” on concern the global recovery may not be sustained.

‘Question This Recovery’ The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell 3.8 percent last week, the biggest decline in almost three months, after European officials called on Greece to take steps to shore up its deteriorating finances, China curbed lending to prevent its economy from overheating and U.S. President Barack Obama announced plans to limit the size of the nation’s banks.

“Platinum and palladium depend on industrial usage,” said Siegfried, based in Zurich. “What we see is that investors are very bullish that stimulus packages will eventually turn around the economy and that demand for those metals will increase. We question this recovery. The fundamental for gold is more comfortable in the long term.”

Even with the risks to the economy, demand from new investors is increasing. In the U.S., stock  exchanges offered securities this month backed by physical platinum and palladium for the first time. The ETFS Platinum Trust held 149,924 ounces as of Jan. 21, according to the ETF Securities Web site. That’s about equal to nine days of world production.

ETF Holdings The firm’s exchange-traded funds in Europe and Australia increased holdings 2.2 percent this year to a record 444,541 ounces, the Web site said. The company’s gold pile shrank 0.6 percent, it said.

Hedge funds and other large speculators held a net 19,259 contracts betting platinum would rise at the end of 2009, up 163 percent from a year earlier, surpassing gold’s 83 percent gain, according to U.S. Commodity Futures trading Commodity data. As they amassed that position, platinum climbed 62 percent from its 2009 trough.

“Prices have obviously come a long way from the lows,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered in London. “But I think there’s a strong case we’re going to see significant upside from here still.

Gold Update

Gold Update :


Gold sustaining above $1245 inched towards $1256..


Unable to crossover $1257.. has dipped towards immideate support of  $1242


Expect bounce back from here.. If breaks this next support seen @ $1235-1227


Strong Manufacturing data from US & China have given some weakness to Bullion..


Dow Jones +250.. Another bullish day for stock markets... Nifty 5555-5600

Shining Silver - Update

Spot Silver ! Trading @ 19.47$ ..

19.80 Last hope for bears... Once breached Nonstop 21.27$

Indian rupees Expect upto 32127 - 33500 - 33999

Support exists @ 29800 (18.7$)

Good Physical Demand... Technically Strong..

Festive Season. Sky Rocketing Gold Prices... 

Alll Positive Factors... Silver Shining!!!

Earning Unlimited@~!

Jai Jinendra :-)

Gold At 1250$.. What's Next..?

Gold @ 1250$.. What's Next...?




As expected a good rally from 1172$.. Now @ 1250, it has support @ 1242-35$.
As long holds support shall see heading to make new highs towards 1265-72$.


All round buying.. & fresh concerns over economy... double dip recession.. 
Festive buying demand in India... Overall good bullish factors for gold to make a new high & inch higher towards 1310$


A Update on Silver soon.... Watch out...




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